The physical SIM card — the small plastic chip that has been a fixture of mobile phones for more than three decades — is on a measured but irreversible decline. The technology replacing it, the embedded SIM or eSIM, is a programmable chip integrated permanently into a device’s hardware that performs the same connectivity function without requiring physical insertion, removal, or replacement. In 2025 and 2026, the transition passed several significant markers: Apple extended eSIM-only iPhones beyond the US market, Google followed with the Pixel 10, and — most consequentially for global adoption figures — China’s government approved eSIM trials for domestic smartphones, opening what had been the world’s largest holdout market.
The State of the Market in 2026
The numbers reflect a technology that is growing rapidly from a meaningful but still-minority base. ABI Research forecasted 403 million consumer eSIM-enabled devices and 140 million IoT eSIM-enabled devices shipped globally in 2025 — smartphones constituted 74% of consumer eSIM device shipments in 2025. Despite this, over 70% of smartphones globally still lacked eSIM support as of 2025, leaving substantial room for continued growth.
The GSMA’s 2026 Mobile Economy Report projects that eSIM-enabled smartphone connections will reach 2.5 billion globally by 2028, and that eSIM will account for 42% of all SIM technologies by 2030. The GSMA noted that eSIM technology, once limited to premium devices, is now standard in mid-range smartphones, wearables, and a growing range of connected products.
ABI Research forecasts eSIM-enabled device shipments to exceed 633 million in 2026, driven significantly by Chinese smartphone adoption. The Asia-Pacific region is projected to hold the highest eSIM growth rate for smartphones between 2025 and 2030, at a 22.8% compound annual growth rate, compared to more modest rates in North America and Western Europe where earlier adoption has settled into steady expansion.
China’s Opening: The Most Important Development of 2025
The single most consequential development for global eSIM adoption in 2025 was China’s regulatory change. In October 2025, China’s Ministry of Industry and Information Technology approved eSIM trials for mobile devices, and all three major carriers began offering eSIM services, bringing the technology to the world’s largest smartphone market. The Chinese government had previously restricted eSIM adoption for mobile devices due to concerns about network oversight and user identity verification — the same concerns that have slowed adoption in some other regulated markets.
The rollout in China was notably influenced by the iPhone Air’s eSIM-only design, prompting a policy relaxation — a case of consumer product design influencing national regulation. This signals that eSIM is embedded deeply enough in the product roadmaps of the world’s most influential consumer technology companies that regulatory resistance is becoming more difficult to sustain.
Why Manufacturers Are Removing Physical SIM Trays
The motivations for device manufacturers to eliminate the physical SIM slot are practical and commercial. Removing the SIM tray frees internal space that can be used for larger batteries, improved camera systems, or additional components. It eliminates a physical opening in the device chassis, improving water and dust resistance. eSIM-only models of the iPhone reportedly deliver longer battery life than versions with physical SIM trays.
For manufacturers, the shift also reduces per-device complexity in logistics and support. For users, the practical advantage is most pronounced in international travel: rather than purchasing a local SIM card at an airport, swapping it in, and managing multiple small cards, an eSIM user can activate a local data plan digitally, often within seconds, and switch back to their home plan automatically when they return.
Apple’s iOS 26 introduced an eSIM auto-switching feature that activates a travel eSIM as soon as the user leaves their home country and reactivates the domestic eSIM on return, removing any manual intervention from the process entirely.
The Barriers That Remain
The transition is not uniform across markets or demographics. Despite the technology’s growing presence in premium and mid-range devices, global eSIM adoption was around 3% of all connections in 2024 and is expected to cross 5% in 2025. A significant portion of users still lack awareness that their devices support eSIM functionality.
Carrier support varies substantially by geography. Some smaller carriers and markets with older infrastructure have been slow to implement eSIM provisioning systems. In India, eSIM support varies by carrier and plan type, and the consumer experience of activating and switching eSIM profiles is not yet uniformly smooth across all operators.
This transition won’t happen overnight. Several economic, social, and technical barriers remain. Many users are still unaware that their phones support eSIM, and the habit of inserting a physical card is deeply embedded in how people think about changing phones or switching carriers.
The projection that eSIM will account for 42% of all SIM technologies by 2030 implies that physical SIM cards will remain in active use for the majority of the decade in many parts of the world. Physical SIM is not dying rapidly — it is declining gradually as device fleets turn over and carrier infrastructure catches up. The direction is clear; the pace is measured.